Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Disclaimer

All opinions expressed on this blog are the individual’s personal perspective and cannot be interpreted as a Buy/Sell indication!

It is strictly for informative purposes only!

Monday, 31 December 2018

MARKET AND/OR SHARE DIRECTION / MARK EN/OF AANDELE RIGTING




GROUP DISCUSSION:

HOW CAN I ANTICIPATE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET AND/OR MY SHARE/S MAY GO?

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Hendrik de Jager.







Saturday, 17 February 2018

CFR

Richemont is a Swiss-based holding company, but operates internationally. It exercises financial and operational control over companies operating primarily in luxury goods. Keep an eye on the Rand while trading this stock.
 
 
On the weekly scale graph we notice a retracement back to the 200 weekly moving average. Currently at a strong support price and over sold levels on the Stochastic oscillator.  Defiantly a stock to keep watching this coming week or two.
 
 
Zooming into the daily data, to time the trade and find the entry and stop price levels. A close above the 5 day moving average at 10800, might be a good entry level.  With a stop at the 200 weekly moving average 10300, but the recent low 10400 should be fine as well.

Trade with caution as the markets are very unstable and uncertain.
Contact me @Duplo123 or join us on Skype
 

Friday, 26 January 2018

Moving Channels

Trade with moving channels
 
DUAL moving average crossover systems - where moving averages of a variety of different periods may be used to determine entry and exit points when the moving averages cross each other - have been discussed before.

The moving average channel technique, however, offers a trading system that gives faster signals more frequently. These moving averages may also be used as resistance lines in a bearish trend, and support lines in a bullish trend.

You should test periods of moving averages to find the one that suits your trading style, as different ones will give either faster or slower signals.

For example, apply a 20-period exponential moving average calculated on the price lows, and another calculated on the price highs.
These two moving averages then form the channel (red lines). The moving average on the price lows will offer a support line in a bullish trend, and that on the price highs a resistance line in a bearish trend.
 

To generate buy and sell signals, apply a five-period exponential moving average (blue line) and interpret it as follows:
Buy signal: Five exponential moving averages (EMA) crosses above the 20 EMA on the price highs.
Sell signal: Five EMA crosses below the 20 EMA on the price lows.

This filters out the false signals often generated by moving average crossovers during a period of price consolidation. Do keep in mind that the price may retrace to the 20 EMAs - therefore, an exit signal is not reliable on simply applying the reverse of this method (i.e. exit the long if the five EMA drops back below the 20 EMA on the price highs, and vice versa). Consult other indicators for exit signals.
 
By Joe Meyer - Fin24.com - 18 February 2010

Tuesday, 26 December 2017

Do you want to be spot-on or making money, maybe both?

Well nobody can be right at all times.  Accept it and move on.  Rather focus on the second part, making money.
The following strategy is a very easy, but proven concept.  I’ve tested it and gladly share the results.  For this strategy, we are using the Moving Average Envelope as an indicator.  Plot a standard 14 period MAE, with a 2% offset* on the close price.  Repeat it with another one, with a 1% offset* setting.  All setting and variables can be adjusted to personal preferences.  *Note: These offset settings are recommended for the J200 tradable index and needs adjustment for each other share.

The result should look like the following graph:
The strategy works as follows: Find areas where the closing price over extends the outer bands and wait for it to close back within the membrane area.  This will then trigger you buying or selling.  Place a protective stop, just below recent lows for the long position or above recent highs for the short position.   For the exit, you can use the trend line and once violated close the trade.  Alternatively, switch the trade on the next trigger.  A target at the opposing inner band and the protective stop at the crossest, opposite outer band can also be used as an other option.

Note that the exit on trend line violation maybe premature and we can lose out on the next rally.  Neither was there a buying trigger for rally A.
This was tested with data over 700 days. 22 Long and 28 Short triggers were generated, leaving us with 50 triggers over these 700 days. About a trigger every 14 trading days. A maximum drawdown close to 5% (a protective stop would prevented it) and a maximum benefit just shy off 10% over 10 trading days or a total of 40% profit during these 700 trading days.  The result was closely to a 50/50 right/wrong per trigger, but looking at the summation results it's a different story. The conclusion is, when you're on the right side of the trade, stay invested.  In converse, when you on the wrong side, get out as fast as you can.
This strategy is spot-on and will make money for you.